CASY

How CASY Has Traded Around Earnings

Over the last eight reported quarters, Casey’s General Stores (CASY) beat the consensus earnings estimate every time: an 8/8, or 100%, beat rate. The average earnings surprise across those quarters was 17.8%, and the average 5-day price move after the report was 4.89%, classified as an upward drift. That longer-term tilt masks a wide range of short-term outcomes, including post-beat selloffs.

The most recent four releases, listed from newest to oldest, show exactly how much results can vary. On June 9, 2026, CASY reported actual EPS of $4.37 versus an estimate of $3.31—a 32% surprise—and the stock jumped 20.29% the next session and 13.68% over the following five trading days. On March 9, 2026, actual EPS was $3.49 versus $3.00 (16.3% surprise), producing a 3.82% one-day move and a 1.31% five-day move. On December 9, 2025, actual EPS of $5.53 beat the $5.19 estimate by 6.6%, yet the stock fell 5.34% the next day and 1.85% over the next five sessions. On September 8, 2025, actual EPS of $5.77 versus estimate $5.02 (14.9% surprise) led to a 3.80% one-day gain and a 6.41% five-day gain.

What the Options Market Is Pricing for the Sept. 14 Report

CASY is scheduled to report next on September 14, 2026, after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $6.63. Because the company’s 100% historical beat rate is widely known, implied volatility in options expiring around the report date generally rises as traders build positions. After the release, implied volatility typically collapses regardless of direction, so an options trade’s outcome depends heavily on whether the realized move is larger than the move the market priced in.

Useful flow signals include the implied move priced by at-the-money weekly straddles, whether call volume or put volume dominates in the September expirations, and whether large trades appear to be opening new contracts or closing old ones. Since the December 2025 quarter proved that a 6.6% beat can coincide with a 5.34% next-day decline, the directional setup matters just as much as the headline EPS outcome.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches Now

Ahead of the September 14 report, the stock trades at $859.12, with an RSI of 57.4 and a 50-day EMA of $811.21. That means price is currently above the 50-day EMA, while RSI sits near neutral. A disciplined read treats the 100% beat rate and 17.8% average surprise as background context, not a forecast. Watch how the immediate post-report price action compares to the $6.63 consensus and the 4.89% historical average five-day drift, and pay attention to whether the move holds into the close or reverses.

Given the dispersion in the last four quarters—ranging from a 20.29% surge after the June 2026 beat to a 5.34% drop after the December 2025 beat—single-session reactions can be misleading. Traders generally monitor whether the price stays above the $811.21 50-day EMA on any pullback, how guidance compares to the current $6.63 estimate, and whether the five-day drift matches the historical 4.89% average or breaks away from it. For the full analyst consensus, institutional ownership signals, and detailed positioning ahead of the Sept. 14 report, see the platform’s full institutional verdict.